Lies, damned lies, and Prof. Pavlov’s “methodology”

Prof. Pavlov has finally published the “methodology”1)Prof. Pavlov’s methodology he used to arrive at the conclusion that “City of Vancouver currently has the highest property taxes in Canada”. Before we examine the methodology, let’s get something out of the way: Prof. Pavlov’s conclusion that “City of Vancouver currently has the highest property taxes in Canada” is a lie.

In his “methodology” he admits that, while he makes the claim that “City of Vancouver currently has the highest property taxes in Canada,” his data is only for single family homes. The only conclusion that can be drawn from Prof. Pavlov’s “methodology” is “City of Vancouver currently has the highest property taxes in Canada if we only consider single family homes.”

Would that conclusion be any more truthful?

No. That’s also a lie.

 

The City of Vancouver budget2)http://vancouver.ca/files/cov/vancouver-2018-budget.pdf shows that Vancouverites pay some of the lowest taxes even within the Lower Mainland. The A median single family home in Vancouver pays less tax and utilities than Surrey, Burnaby, New Westminster, Richmond and a whole host of other municipalities.

One would’ve expected a professor teaching at Simon Fraser University to be mildly curious about property taxes in Burnaby. But I digress.

Now let’s focus on Prof. Pavlov’s methodology. The good professor says “Using single-family homes is appropriate. About 80 percent of Canadian home owners live in single-family homes.”

Prof. Pavlov offers no source for his claim “About 80 percent of Canadian home owners live in single-family homes”. I did some digging, and the only statistics I can find about different dwelling types is from Statistics Canada. According to the 2011 census3)https://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/famil55a-eng.htm, there were 13,320,610 households in Canada, out which 7,329,150 are single family homes. That’s 55 percent. I have no idea how Prof. Pavlov went from 55 percent to 80 percent. Until Prof. Pavlov provides a reliable source for his data, I’m going to file that under Prof. Pavlov’s Alternative Facts.

Update 1
A kind reader has provided me with the exact numbers for owner occupied properties by dwelling types. In Canada, out of 9,541,320 owner-occupied dwellings in the 2016 census, 6,858,540 (71.8%) were Single-detached houses4)Structural Type of Dwelling (10), Tenure (4), Condominium Status (3), Household Size (8) and Number of Bedrooms (6) for Private Households of Canada, Provinces and Territories, Census Metropolitan Areas and Census Agglomerations, 2016 Census – 25% Sample Data . That’s definitely not “about 80 percent”. In Vancouver, out of 612,010 owner-occupied dwellings in the 2016 census, 249,850 (40.8%) were Single-detached houses5)Structural Type of Dwelling (10), Tenure (4), Condominium Status (3), Household Size (8) and Number of Bedrooms (6) for Private Households of Canada, Provinces and Territories, Census Metropolitan Areas and Census Agglomerations, 2016 Census – 25% Sample Data. So, if Prof. Pavlov is trying to show that “City of Vancouver currently has the highest property taxes in Canada,” he cannot conveniently ignore nearly 60 percent of the dwellings in the city.
End update

In conclusion, Prof. Pavlov’s original conclusion “City of Vancouver currently has the highest property taxes in Canada” is a lie. The only conclusion that can be derived from his “methodology”, that “City of Vancouver currently has the highest property taxes in Canada if we only consider single family homes,” is also a lie. The assertion of his methodology that “About 80 percent of Canadian home owners live in single-family homes.” has no basis in fact.

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