Update: Elections BC has revised the results for Coquitlam-Burke Mountain citing a “transposition error”. The projects have been updated to reflect this change.
Here’s my attempt to project absentee vote projections for the cliffhanger ridings from last night.
Data
BC Election final results 2013
BC Election preliminary results 2017
Method
First, I calculated the absentee vote as a percentage of preliminary (non-absentee) votes.
| Coquitlam-Burke Mountain – 2013 | ||
| Douglas Horne | Chris Wilson | |
| LIB | NDP | |
| Prelim subtotal | 8,868 | 6,420 |
| s. 98 Special | 24 | 36 |
| s. 99 Absentee – in ED | 482 | 439 |
| s. 100 Absentee – out of ED | 176 | 209 |
| s. 101 Absentee – advance | 41 | 53 |
| s. 104 Voting in DEO office | 149 | 143 |
| s. 106 Voting by mail | 26 | 15 |
| Absentee subtotal | 898 | 895 |
| absentee as % of prelim | 10.13% | 13.94% |
I then used that as a proxy to calculate the absentee ballots for 2017, and thus obtain the projected grand total.
| Prelim 2017 | Absentee as %
of prelim 2013 |
Projected Total 2017 | ||||
| Electoral District | LIB | NDP | LIB | NDP | LIB | NDP |
| Coquitlam-Burke Mountain | 9,514 | 9,344 | 10.13% | 13.94% | 10,551 | 10,611 |
| Courtenay-Comox* | 10,049 | 10,058 | 11.16% | 13.21% | 11,171 | 11,386 |
| Maple Ridge-Mission | 9,723 | 9,843 | 9.77% | 9.95% | 10,673 | 10,822 |
According to my projections, Coquitlam-Burke Mountain will flip from Liberal to NDP, and NDP will hold onto Courtenay-Comox and Maple Ridge-Mission with increased margins.
This will make it a 42-42 tie, with Andrew Weaver’s Green’s emerging as the ultimate kingmaker.
Courtenay-Comox is a new riding, but it is not too different to Comox Valley, so I used number for Comox Valley to project the outcome for Courtenay-Comox. Another factor to note here is that the BC Liberal Jim Benninger used to be the base commander of CFB Comox. As a result, this is the riding I’m least confident about in projecting.
I didn’t try to forecast the outcome for Richmond-Queensborough absentee count because it is a brand new riding.
[Photo Credit: Dane Low]
In Courtenay, Jim Benninger is the ex- base commander, but that does not mean he was popular on the base or in the community. McRae had that edge on him. Same as the old Fiblib federal boss: burnt as many bridges as he built.
Ronna-Rae Leonard was a community activist on environmental, poverty and homelessness issues here. She still has a good shot at taking this ridingl
I worry about Cumberland being moved to Port Alberni Pacific Rim and its impact on the Absentee results.
I worry about the loss of Cumberland ( moved to Pacific Rim/PortAlberni) on the NDP absentee ballot count.
Comox boy here.
Benninger has already admitted he doesn’t expect too many military votes in the absentee ballots.
According to Elections BC, most absentee ballots are actually cast at another voting station with less than 10% actually being “mail-ins”.
Changing the boundaries also made the riding more “Liberal” so we can’t rely on the numbers from 2013.
My own analysis shows the same thing though done a little differently. I have yet to find a 2013 result where the NDP didn’t improve vs the BC Liberals.
For CQB I got
BCLib: 10453 43.59% Adjusted by (-0.85%)
BCNDP: 10495 43.76% Adjusted by (+0.63%)
It is closer with a difference of… 42 votes. and a shift of .1.48%
Richmond Queensborough would require a shift of 1.46% to switch which puts it into the realm of possibilities but the New West and Richmond East constituencies both had a lower absentee vote shift than The two Coquitlam constituencies had last time. I don’t expect it to flip, but I expect a recount in RQE.
CQM shifted by 152 votes due the absentee ballots changing the winner from Liberal to NDP in 2013.
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