Update: Elections BC has revised the results for Coquitlam-Burke Mountain citing a “transposition error”. The projects have been updated to reflect this change.
Here’s my attempt to project absentee vote projections for the cliffhanger ridings from last night.
First, I calculated the absentee vote as a percentage of preliminary (non-absentee) votes.
|Coquitlam-Burke Mountain – 2013|
|Douglas Horne||Chris Wilson|
|s. 98 Special||24||36|
|s. 99 Absentee – in ED||482||439|
|s. 100 Absentee – out of ED||176||209|
|s. 101 Absentee – advance||41||53|
|s. 104 Voting in DEO office||149||143|
|s. 106 Voting by mail||26||15|
|absentee as % of prelim||10.13%||13.94%|
I then used that as a proxy to calculate the absentee ballots for 2017, and thus obtain the projected grand total.
|Prelim 2017||Absentee as %
of prelim 2013
|Projected Total 2017|
According to my projections, Coquitlam-Burke Mountain will flip from Liberal to NDP, and NDP will hold onto Courtenay-Comox and Maple Ridge-Mission with increased margins.
This will make it a 42-42 tie, with Andrew Weaver’s Green’s emerging as the ultimate kingmaker.
Courtenay-Comox is a new riding, but it is not too different to Comox Valley, so I used number for Comox Valley to project the outcome for Courtenay-Comox. Another factor to note here is that the BC Liberal Jim Benninger used to be the base commander of CFB Comox. As a result, this is the riding I’m least confident about in projecting.
I didn’t try to forecast the outcome for Richmond-Queensborough absentee count because it is a brand new riding.
[Photo Credit: Dane Low]